How did the Arrowhead Pride Mock Draft Fare Against the Real Thing?

Published April 27, 2009 at 3:00 p.m.

Team	Actual Selection	AP Selection	Reach
Detroit Lions - UCrawford	1 Matthew Stafford	LB Aaron Curry	-3
St. Louis Rams - Lanier63	2 Jason Smith	OT Jason Smith	0
Kansas City Chiefs - TonyG88	3 Tyson Jackson	OT Eugene Monroe	-5
Seattle Seahawks - mikvogel	4 Aaron Curry	DT B.J. Raji	-5
Cleveland Browns - HIV2Elway	5 Mark Sanchez	WR Michael Crabtree	-5
Cincinnati Bengals - mistamic	6 Andre Smith	OT Andre Smith	0
Oakland Raiders - mushin	7 Darrius Heyward-Bey	WR Jeremy Maclin	-12
Jacksonville Jaguars - DThomasReigns	8 Eugene Monroe	WR Percy Harvin	-14
Green Bay Packers - JasonM	9 B.J. Raji	DE/OLB Everette Brown	-34
San Francisco 49ers - Harry Feltersnatch	10 Michael Crabtree	QB Matt Stafford	+9
Buffalo Bills - ArrowDread	11 Aaron Maybin	LB Rey Maualuga	-27
Denver Broncos - Keyser Sose	12 Knowshon Moreno	DE Brian Orakpo	-1
Washington Redskins - Official Arrowhead Pride Parade	13 Brian Orakpo	T Michael Oher	-10
New Orleans Saints - cmpotter	14 Malcolm Jenkins	CB Vontae Davis	-11
Houston Texans - ChiefsDude	15 Brian Cushing	CB Malcolm Jenkins	+1
San Diego Chargers - Helmets	16 Larry English	DE Tyson Jackson	+13
New York Jets - NJChief	17 Josh Freeman	QB Mark Sanchez	+12
Chicago Bears - Holmeslice	18 Robert Ayers	QB Josh Freeman	+1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - madtheory	19 Jeremy Maclin	DT Peria Jerry	-4
Detroit Lions  - UCrawford	20 Brandon Pettigrew	DE Aaron Maybin	+9
Philadelphia Eagles - Chiefsfan717	21 Alex Mack	TE Brandon Pettigrew	+1
Minnesota Vikings - kcsno56	22 Percy Harvin	WR Hakeem Nicks	-5
New England Patriots - connerman	23 Michael Oher	RB Chris Wells	-8
Atlanta Falcons - RedNose	24 Peria Jerry	LB Clay Matthews	-2
Miami Dolphins - shraggyj	25 Vontae Davis	LB Brian Cushing	+10
Baltimore Ravens - Ben S	26 Clay Matthews	CB Alphonso Smith	-11
Indianapolis Colts - craig in calgary	27 Donald Brown	LB James Laurinaitis	-8
Philadelphia Eagles - Chiefsfan717	28 Eric Wood	OT Eben Britton	-11
New York Giants - ChiefsFan90s	29 Hakeem Nicks	WR Darrius Heyward-Bay	+22
Tennessee Titans - Lvl.99	30 Kenny Britt	C Alex Mack	+9
Arizona Cardinals - THE_TRUTH	31 Chris Wells	RB Knowshon Moreno	+19
Pittsburgh Steelers - McWhirt33	32 Evander Hood	CB/S Sean Smith

As you can imagine, there weren't very many picks by the Arrowhead Pride faithful that were right on in this past weekend's NFL draft. Lots of inexplicable drops to the second round by first round prospects threw our whole mock draft out of whack.

Here is how to read the chart. Basically, the closer to zero the better, with a negative number meaning the AP mock drafter "reached" for that pick compared to where the player fell in the actual draft. A positive number means good value was had for that pick. I subtracted the real draft position from AP's draft position to get these numbers.

Basically, negative is bad and positive is good. The second round is after the jump.

Here are some stats on the AP Mock Draft v. the real thing:

Right on

Four people got their picks dead on - Lanier63 (#2 overall, OT Jason Smith to the Rams), mistamic (#6 overall, OT Andre Smith to the Bengals), ChiefsFan90s (#45 overall, LB Clint Sintim to the Giants) and ChiefsFan717 (#53 overall, RB LeSean McCoy to the Eagles). Not too shabby in this draft.

Biggest Reaches

Our main man THE_TRUTH was in a league of his own with this one. His selection of C A.Q. Shipley with the #63 pick in our mock ended up coming far too early. Shipley ended up going in the 7th round with the #236 pick. That comes to a reach factor of -173. We still love him though.

DThomasReigns was next up on the reach list. Oklahoma G Duke Robinson fell all the way to the 27th pick of the 5th rounder. The reach factor ended up being -124.

The next three big reaches before the numbers dropped off were ChiefsFan90s selecting OT Herman Johnson at #60 (reach of -107), RedNose selecting CB Victor Harris (reach of -102) and 808NanZ808 taking OL Fenuki Tupa at #59 (reach of -100).

Non-reaches

Not including those who nailed their picks, we only had seven commenters who did not end up reaching for their mock draft picks. They are Holmeslice (CB Malcolm Jenkins at #15), Chiefsfan717 (TE Branden Pettigrew at #21), JasonM (DT Ron Brace at #41), PSUkegreen (WR Mohammed Massaquoi at #52), Lanier63 (DT Evander Hood at #35) and finally saskwatch (DT Fili Moala at #61). Nice work fellas.

We'll do it again next year

Many thanks to everyone who participated this year. Every pick came in on time and the write ups were excellent. For those interested in last year's mock draft v. the real thing, stag was nice enough to do that post back in August.

Click over for the second round results and grade the draft in the poll below.

Pick	Team	Actual Selection	AP Selection	Reach
1(33)	Detroit Lions - UCrawford	33 Louis Delmas	CB Darius Butler	-8
2(34)	New England Patriots (From Kansas City) - connerman	34 Patrick Chung	DE Robert Ayers	+16
3(35)	St. Louis Rams - Lanier63	35 James Laurinaitis	DT Evander Hood	+3
4(36)	Cleveland Browns - HIV2Elway	36 Brian Robiskie	DE Connor Barwin	-10
5(37)	Seattle Seahawks - mikvogel	37 Alphonso Smith	OT William Beatty	-23
6(38)	Cincinnati Bengals - mistamic	38 Rey Maualuga	C Max Unger	-11
7(39)	Jacksonville Jaguars - DThomasReigns	39 Eben Britton	G Duke Robinson	-124
8(40)	Oakland Raiders - mushin	40 Ron Brace	T Phil Loadholt	-14
9(41)	Green Bay Packers - JasonM	41 Darius Butler	DT Ron Brace	+1
10(42)	Buffalo Bills - ArrowDread	42 Jairus Byrd	DE Michael Johnson	-28
11(43)	San Francisco 49ers - Harry Feltersnatch	43 Everette Brown	DE/LB Larry English	+27
12(44)	Miami Dolphins (From Washington) - shraggyj	44 Pat White	WR Kenny Britt	+14
13(45)	New York Giants (From New Orleans) - ChiefsFan90s	45 Clint Sintim	LB Clint Sintim	0
14(46)	Houston Texans - ChiefsDude	46 Connor Barwin	FS Louis Delmas	+13
15(47)	New England Patriots (From San Diego) - connerman	47 Michael Mitchell	DE/OLB Paul Kruger	-10
16(48)	Denver Broncos (From Texans) - Keyser Sose	48 Darcel McBath	RB Donald Brown	+21
17(49)	Chicago Bears - Holmeslice	49 Max Unger	C Jonathan Luigs	-57
18(50)	Cleveland Browns (From Tampa Bay) - HIV2Elway	50 Mohamed Massaquoi	RB Shonn Green	-15
19(51)	Dallas Cowboys - chiefsfan1384	51 Andy Levitre	SS William Moore	-4
20(52)	New York Jets - PSUkegreen	52 David Veikune	WR Mohamed Massaquoi	+2
21(53)	Philadelphia Eagles - Chiefsfan717	53 LeSean McCoy	RB LeSean McCoy	0
22(54)	Minnesota Vikings - kcsno56	54 Phil Loadholt	C Eric Wood	+26
23(55)	Atlanta Falcons - RedNose	55 William Moore	CB Victor Harris	-102
24(56)	Miami Dolphins - shraggyj	56 Fili Moala	CB Jarius Byrd	+14
25(57)	Baltimore Ravens - Ben S	57 Paul Kruger	WR Brian Robiskie	+21
26(58)	New England Patriots - connerman	58 Sebastian Vollmer	DL Jarron Gilbert	-10
27(59)	Carolina Panthers - 808NaNz808	59 Sherrod Martin	OL Fenuki Tupou	-100
28(60)	New York Giants - ChiefsFan90s	60 William Beatty	OT Herman Johnson	-107
29(61)	Indianapolis Colts - saskwatch	61 Sean Smith	DT Fili Moala	+5
30(62)	Tennessee Titans - Lvl.99	62 Sen'Derrick Marks	LB Cody Brown	-1
31(63)	Arizona Cardinals - THE_TRUTH	63 Cody Brown	C A.Q. Shipley	-173
32(64)	Pittsburgh Steelers - McWhirt33	64 Richard Quinn	OT T.J. Lang	-45

 

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Poll

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Grade the Arrowhead Pride Community Mock Draft.

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  93 votes Results

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