Is Taking a QB in Rounds 2-4 the Answer?

Published Feb. 9, 2010 at 4:03 p.m.

If you have been a Chiefs fan for very long you understand the yearning the KC faithful have had for a "franchise" quarterback.  We received the teaser for a couple of years when Kansas City borrowed the former San Fransisco 49er great, Joe Montana.  And we all had the pleasure of watching Trent Green power the great offensive machine put together by Dick Vermeil.

But when are we going to grow one of our own?

Matt Cassel might or might not be able to power the next offensive machine for the Chiefs.  Time will tell.   But while he tries...how should the Chiefs go about developing the next great franchise quarterback?

In my last post, Should Floundering Teams Shoot the Moon for a Franchise QB?, I explored the success teams have had with top 5 picks when the QB had poor lines and bad run games their first year.   If you recall, the inquiry discovered that top 5 quarterbacks that have poor lines and poor run games have a 17% success rate.  Teams with good lines and good run games had a 100% success rate with their top 5 QB.

This post will review the success that quarterbacks have had when selected in rounds 2-4.  How successful can we expect a quarterback to be if we take one that is worthy of a 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round pick?

Can, and have, teams gotten Franchise quarterbacks in rounds 2-4?  What are the odds?

Below, is a chart of the quarterbacks taken in round 2 since the 2000 draft.  As you can see, there has been 7.  The bar graph to the right of each player represents the QB's NFL longevity, number of NFL starts, and production.

Quarterbacks Taken in The Second Round
Year Drafted		Player	Team	NFL Quality
2001	#32 pick	Drew Brees	Chargers
2001	#53 pick	Quincy Carter	Cowboys
2001	#59 pick	Marques Tuiasosopo	Raiders
2006	#49  pick	Kellen Clemens	Jets
2006	#64 pick	Tarvaris Jackson	Vikings
2007	#36 pick	Kevin Kolb	Eagles
2007	#43 pick	Drew Stanton	Lions

Bar Graphics from Draftinsider.com

Observations of the graph above:

• Taking a quarterback in the 2nd round looks to be a mixed bag. 
• Over the past 9 years an NFL team would have had a 14% Chance of getting a franchise quarterback in the second round.
• Teams had a 42% chance of getting a quality backup.

Quarterbacks Taken in The Third Round
Year Drafted		Player	Team	NFL Quality
2000	#65 pick	Giovanni Carmazzi	Chargers
2000	#75 pick	Chris Redman	Cowboys
2002	#81 pick	Josh McCown	Raiders
2003	#88  pick	Dave Ragone	Jets
2003	#97  pick	Chris Simms	Vikings
2004	#90  pick	Matt Schaulz	Falcons
2005	#67 pick	Charlie Frye	Browns
2005	#69  pick	Andrew Walter	Raiders
2005	#85  pick	David Greene	Seahawks
2006	#81  pick	Charlie Whitehurst	Chargers
2006	#85  pick	Brodie Croyle	Chiefs
2007	#92  pick	Trent Edwards	Bills

Observations of the graph above:

• There has not been any 3rd round quarterbacks develop into a franchise QB since 2000. 
• Although more quarterbacks have failed to produce even as backups in round 3 than round 2...it appears there has been more success as quality backups and periodic starters than the 2nd round.

 

Quarterbacks Taken in The Fourth Round
Year Drafted		Player	Team	NFL Quality
2001	#125 pick	Jesse Palmer	Giants
2001	#109 pick	Sage Rosenfels	Redskins
2002	#117 pick	Rohan Davey	Patriots
2002	#108  pick	David Garrard	Jaguars
2003	#110 pick	Seneca Wallace	Seahawks
2004	#106 pick	Luke McCown	Browns
2005	#121 pick	Stefan Lefors	Panthers
2005	#106 pick	Kyle Orton	Purdue
2007	#103 pick	Isaiah Stanback	Cowboys	Moved to WR in NFL

Observations of the graph above:

•  You would think that the production of QBs taken in the fourth round would be less than that of the 2nd round.  Well, its not.
  
• Since 2000 a team has gotten a quality backup in round four 50% of the time as apposed to a 42% chance with the 2nd round pick.

So what does this tell us?

After musing over my last two posts it tells me that if you need the franchise quarterback you better take him high in the draft.  And if you take one high in the draft then you better build up that offensive line and run game before you throw him to the wolves.

In my last post I showed you that a top 5 draft pick that had a high sack count and low running game rank had a 17% chance of being successful.   In this post we can see that teams have had a 14% chance of getting a franchise QB in round 2 since 2000.  And even less of a chance of even getting a starter in rounds 3 and 4: 10% chance of getting a starter.

We all dream about getting a Tom Brady.  Problem is a team cannot base a philosophy around such a poor statistical chance of success.   If a team wants a good career backup then taking a QB in rounds 2-4 is a good plan of action.  It is ok to take those QBs in the later rounds as backups and "dream" you hit the jackpot.

But if you want a solid plan to reach the Super Bowl with your own home grown QB.  You better plan on getting that QB in the first round.  And if you get one in the first round you better plan on getting a good line and run game if you want him to make the transformation into that franchise quarterback.

 

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